Nationwide Poll Shows Governing Party Leading Opposition by Significant Margin
Recent public opinion surveys indicate a notable shift in political support, with the current ruling party now holding a lead over the main opposition party. This development marks a significant moment, placing the ruling party ahead of the opposition in the polls for the first time under the current administration.
Key Findings from the Survey
According to the latest survey conducted between November 11th and 12th, the ruling party garnered 44.3% approval. In contrast, the main opposition party’s support fell to 38.0%. This represents a 3.8 percentage point decrease for the opposition compared to the previous week, while the ruling party saw a 3.2 percentage point increase.
Smaller parties also registered in the poll, with the Jo Guk Hyuksin Party receiving 3.7% and the Gaehyuk Party obtaining 2.8%.
Sustained Growth for Ruling Party, Decline for Opposition
The ruling party’s support has been on an upward trajectory for three consecutive weeks, reaching its highest point since the current government took office. Conversely, the opposition party has experienced a decline for the same period, dipping into the 30% range for the first time in ten months, since August of the previous year when its support was recorded at 39.9%.
The gap between the two major parties now stands at 6.3 percentage points, with the ruling party clearly ahead.
Factors Influencing the Shift
Analysis of the survey results suggests that the ruling party’s proactive approach in legislative matters, including initiating parliamentary investigations and advocating for special prosecutor laws, has resonated with voters. The party has seen an increase in support among progressive voters (up 6.8 percentage points), centrist voters (up 5.8 percentage points), and younger demographics in their 20s (up 9.3 percentage points).
Regarding the opposition party’s declining support, the survey points to internal party strife as a primary factor. Ongoing debates concerning responsibility for the results of the June 3rd local elections, coupled with controversies surrounding election irregularities and public discussions about the leadership of key party figures, have reportedly led to a widening rift within the party. This internal discord appears to have impacted support in crucial regions such as Gyeonggi and Incheon (down 7.2 percentage points) and the Honam region (down 6.1 percentage points).
Survey Methodology
The survey was conducted nationwide among 1,002 individuals aged 18 and over, using an automated voice response system via wireless calls. The response rate for the survey was 3.8%. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Further details can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
