South Korea’s national weather agency faced criticism after a widely anticipated rainfall on Saturday, July 29th, largely failed to appear across most of the country, or fell in significantly lesser amounts than predicted. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) had forecast rain for the majority of the nation, with predictions ranging from 5mm to as high as 80mm in some areas. However, actual precipitation fell far short of these expectations in many regions, leading to disappointment and disrupted plans for citizens.
Inaccurate Rainfall Predictions Across the Nation
The KMA initially issued a forecast on Friday afternoon, July 28th, indicating that rain was likely in many parts of the country on Saturday. The predictions included 5-40mm for Seoul, Incheon, and northern Gyeonggi Province; 10-60mm for southern Gyeonggi Province; 5-60mm for Gangwon Province; 20-80mm for the Chungcheong and Jeolla regions; and 20-60mm for Gyeongsang Province. Jeju Island was also expected to receive 5-40mm of rain.
This forecast led many to believe Saturday would be a rainy day nationwide. However, the reality on the ground proved to be starkly different in numerous locations. The capital region, in particular, saw forecasts that were essentially missed. Cities like Seoul, Suwon, and Seongnam recorded no measurable rainfall at all.
One resident, Mr. Park (43) from Seongnam, expressed frustration. “We heard the forecast and canceled our family outing, but then the day turned out sunny,” he stated. “Our weekend plans were completely thrown off.”
Regional Discrepancies Highlight Forecast Challenges
The discrepancy between forecasts and actual rainfall was also significant in Gangwon Province. While the KMA predicted 20-60mm for southern Gangwon and 5-40mm for central and northern parts, actual measurements were minimal: 0mm in Chuncheon, 1mm in Wonju, and 1.1mm in Gangneung.
Similarly, in the Chungcheong region, predictions of 30-80mm for Daejeon, Sejong, and South Chungcheong, and 20-60mm for North Chungcheong, were not met. Representative stations recorded only 12.1mm in Daejeon, 12mm in Hongseong, and 18.1mm in Cheongju. Many areas received less than half of the anticipated rainfall.
The Gyeongsang region experienced a similar pattern. Forecasts suggested 20-60mm for Daegu, North Gyeongsang, Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang. However, actual rainfall was meager: 0.9mm in Busan, 2.0mm in Pohang, 3.0mm in Daegu, and 3.3mm in Changwon. Andong (16.2mm) and Ulsan (15.5mm) also fell short of the lower end of the forecast range (20mm).
The only area that largely met its forecast was Ulleungdo and Dokdo, which received 59.6mm of rain, falling within the predicted range.
In the Honam region, rainfall varied considerably by location. Jeonju recorded 48.3mm and Gwangju saw 23.8mm, both falling within the predicted 20-80mm range. However, Yeosu received no rain (0mm), and Mokpo recorded only 3mm. Jeju Island, despite a forecast of 5-40mm, only registered about 2.3mm at its main observation station.
Nationwide, out of 22 major observation points, 13 recorded less than 5mm of rain. Only three locations—Jeonju, Gwangju, and Ulleungdo/Dokdo—experienced rainfall exceeding 20mm. When comparing actual rainfall to the lower limit of the predicted range, 19 out of the 22 observation points fell short.
Revised Forecasts and Agency Explanation
The KMA issued a revised forecast on Saturday morning, stating that rain would occur in many parts of the country. This update adjusted expectations, predicting 10-40mm for southern Gyeonggi, 5-10mm for Seoul, Incheon, and northern Gyeonggi, and 20-80mm for the Chungcheong and Jeonbuk regions, with 20-60mm for Gwangju, South Jeolla, and Gyeongsang. While the predicted amounts for the capital region were reduced, the overall expectation of significant rainfall nationwide persisted.
The agency later issued a forecast for Sunday, July 30th, predicting rain for most of the country. The cumulative forecast for July 30th-31st included 30-80mm for southern Gyeonggi, 20-60mm for Seoul, Incheon, and northern Gyeonggi, and a substantial 80-150mm for Daejeon, Sejong, and South Chungcheong.
As of Sunday afternoon, Seoul and Suwon had recorded 0mm of rain. However, the KMA noted that light rain was expected in the capital area during the day and stated that it was too early to definitively call the forecast a failure, given the cumulative predictions for the weekend.
A KMA official explained the inaccuracies, citing the influence of dry air from high-pressure systems located to the north. “This dry air moved further south than anticipated, suppressing the development of rain clouds,” the official said. “Atmospheric conditions are highly variable, making it difficult to predict rainfall amounts accurately for specific locations.”
Looking Ahead: Continued Uncertainty
Despite the recent forecasting challenges, the KMA continues to predict rain for many areas on Monday, July 31st. The agency is forecasting significant cumulative rainfall for the period ending Monday, with higher amounts expected in central and southern regions. However, given the recent performance, citizens remain cautiously optimistic about the accuracy of future weather predictions.
