As the US midterm elections approach, the economy, particularly issues affecting everyday households, is emerging as a critical battleground for voter sentiment. Political consultant Jang Sung-kwan, an advisor at D&A Advisory, stated on October 14th (local time) that the ‘kitchen table economy’ will be the decisive factor in swaying voters. Speaking at a forum hosted by the New York Consulate General, Jang emphasized a common saying in US politics: “In the US, voter allegiances are typically decided six months before an election.”
With a majority of voters having already solidified their party preferences, the focus is now shifting to issues that can mobilize undecided voters and influence the final outcome. The primary concern within the ‘kitchen table economy’ is affordability. Rising costs of essential goods, including milk and eggs, driven by inflation and the ongoing conflict, are leading a significant portion of Americans to blame former President Donald Trump for the price hikes. Polls indicate a growing trust in the Democratic Party over the Republican Party to effectively manage economic and living expenses.
Economic Headwinds and Shifting Alliances
Tariffs imposed on agricultural products, particularly impacting key exports to Canada, are causing financial strain for agricultural businesses. This, coupled with reduced import revenues due to retaliatory tariffs, is creating instability among farmers in the Midwest as they head into the crucial summer growing season. This analysis suggests a potential erosion of support from a key demographic for former President Trump.
Evidence of this shift is appearing among Trump’s core supporters. Approximately one-fifth of voters who supported him in the 2020 election have expressed regret over their vote. Notably, support is rapidly declining among crucial groups, including young men (under 30), Hispanic men, and those in the agriculture-dependent Midwest.
The Rise of the AI and Data Center Debate
Amidst these economic pressures, the debate surrounding Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data centers is poised to become a significant counter-narrative. Issues that were largely ignored until last year, such as data centers and the concept of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), have seen a sharp increase in public concern among Americans since May. The Democratic Party has been advocating for data center regulation and moratoriums as a key campaign message since the beginning of the year.
While the Republican leadership has adopted a stance of “free market response,” some pro-Trump Republican candidates for governor have expressed cautious or even welcoming views on data center construction, despite their alignment with the former president. This divergence highlights the complexity of the issue within the Republican party.
Underlying Voter Sentiment: Discontent and ‘Anti-Establishment’ Feelings
Jang Sung-kwan posits that the fundamental sentiment driving voters as the midterm elections approach is a form of ‘anti-establishment’ feeling. He notes that while ideological differences exist between progressive figures like New York Mayor Adams and Senator Bernie Sanders, and conservative figures like former President Trump and former Governor Bill Richardson, a common thread is the dissatisfaction with the current political establishment and entrenched interests.
This underlying sentiment, Jang argues, is fueling the political landscape. He predicts that candidates from the Democratic Party are likely to retain their majority status, while Republicans may maintain their current majority in the House. Historically, midterms have been challenging for the party in power, and the strong voter turnout intention among Democratic constituents, combined with the ‘anti-establishment’ mood, could favor Democratic gains.
Conversely, the Republican Party faces structural limitations in absorbing all the potential swing votes, especially considering their current advantage in the House and their fundraising capabilities. Out of the 35 seats up for election this cycle, Republican strongholds appear stable, but the ability to expand their reach significantly is seen as constrained.
Jang Sung-kwan has a notable background, having served as the Deputy Secretary-General of the Korean American Grassroots Conference (KAGC) and as a delegate for the Democratic Party at the 2024 Democratic National Convention.
