The approval rating for President Lee Jae-myung’s handling of state affairs has declined for the sixth consecutive week, with negative assessments now surpassing positive ones. This trend continues even after a week where negative evaluations initially overtook positive ones, a phenomenon known as a ‘dead cross’.
Approval Ratings Decline Amidst Economic Concerns
According to a poll conducted by Realmeter from June 22 to 26, commissioned by Energy Economy, 46.5% of respondents approved of President Lee’s performance. This marks a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous week’s 46.7%. Conversely, 49.5% of respondents disapproved of his performance, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the prior week, but still maintaining a 3.0 percentage point lead over positive evaluations. Those who responded ‘Don’t know’ accounted for 4.0%.
Regional and Age Demographics Show Varied Support
Regional breakdowns reveal the highest support for President Lee in Jeju (74.1%), followed by the Honam region (73.1%). Other regions showed support levels of 49.9% in Chungcheong, 46.4% in Incheon/Gyeonggi, 43.2% in Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam, 40.1% in Seoul, 34.3% in Daegu/Gyeongbuk, and 33.9% in Gangwon.
By age group, the 50s showed the highest approval rating at 57.6%, followed closely by the 40s at 56.9%. Support was also notable among those aged 60 and above (48.8%) and those 70 and older (45.0%). The lowest approval rating was observed among those aged 18-29 (31.6%).
Political leaning also showed a significant divide. Support was strongest among self-identified progressive respondents (75.9%), followed by centrists (45.3%). Those identifying as conservative showed the lowest approval (20.4%), with a majority in the centrist and conservative groups expressing negative evaluations.
Shifts in Support and Contributing Factors
Compared to the previous week, approval ratings saw a decrease in Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam by 4.3 percentage points and in Gwangju/Jeolla by 1.7 percentage points. However, Incheon/Gyeonggi saw an increase of 1.6 percentage points.
In terms of age, support declined among those aged 70 and above (down 1.7 percentage points), 40s (down 1.3 percentage points), and 60s (down 1.1 percentage points). Conversely, the 50s age group saw an increase of 2.1 percentage points.
Realmeter attributed the decline in approval ratings to several factors. These include ongoing controversies surrounding the dissolution of the prosecutor’s investigative powers, high inflation, rising commodity prices, and general public distrust in the economy. Political disputes, such as the debate over abolishing the prosecutor’s investigative review authority and investment in the Honam region’s semiconductor cluster, were also cited as contributing to the sustained downward trend.
Political Party Support Trends
In a separate poll conducted by Realmeter on June 25-26 regarding party support, the People Power Party garnered the most support at 42.0%, though this was a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week. The Democratic Party saw an increase of 0.9 percentage points, reaching 41.0% support. Other parties followed, with the New Reform Party at 3.7%, the Reform Party at 2.8%, and the Progressive Party at 1.5%. Unaffiliated respondents constituted 6.9%.
Regional support for the People Power Party was highest in Gangwon (68.6%) and Daegu/Gyeongbuk (60.9%). The Democratic Party’s support was strongest in the Honam region (66.3%) and Jeju (58.0%).
Demographic analysis showed the People Power Party leading among younger voters (10s-30s) and those 70 and older. The Democratic Party’s support was concentrated in the 40s and 50s age groups.
Realmeter analyzed the People Power Party’s slight decline as a result of internal conflict surrounding party leader Jang Dong-hyuk, leading to voter탈출 in Seoul, Chungcheong, and among centrist voters, though core support in the Yeongnam region helped mitigate further losses. The Democratic Party’s rise was attributed to the Honam semiconductor cluster investment issue, which galvanized support in the Gwangju/Jeolla region and among 40s voters.
Survey Methodology
The presidential approval rating poll was conducted from June 22 to 26, surveying 2,502 adults nationwide via wireless phone auto-response (ARS). The response rate was 4.1%, with a margin of error of ±2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
The party support poll was conducted over two days, June 25-26, with 1,002 adults nationwide surveyed via wireless phone ARS. The response rate was 3.4%, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Detailed information on both surveys can be found on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.
