TUI AG has reduced its fiscal year 2026 continuous sales forecast and suspended revenue guidance after Iran tensions disrupted second-quarter results and slowed summer bookings. Customers increasingly delay vacation reservations until closer to departure dates, further pressuring performance.
FY2026 Forecast Revisions
The Markets and Airline division reported a 7% year-over-year drop in summer 2026 bookings as of May 3, with declines of 10% in the UK and 3% in Germany. Political uncertainty continues to erode customer demand.
The share of planned summer travelers yet to book remains at 45% on an April base, matching March levels. TUI AG now projects FY2026 adjusted EBIT between €1.1 billion and €1.4 billion, down from earlier analyst expectations of 7-10% growth over FY2025’s €1.41 billion. The company also paused guidance across other analyst sales projections.
Prior FY2025 sales reached €24.18 billion, with 2-4% growth anticipated.
Second-Quarter Challenges
Iran tensions triggered cancellations, delayed bookings, and margin erosion, cutting Q2 adjusted EBIT by €40 million. Hurricane Helene added another €5 million impact. Despite these headwinds, Q2 adjusted EBIT loss improved from €268 million to €192.7 million year-over-year, narrowing to €188.3 million on an adjusted basis.
Q2 revenue held steady at nearly €3.7 billion, rising 1.3% to €3.75 billion adjusted.
First-Half Performance
First-half adjusted EBIT loss shrank 25.9% to €115.6 million from €155.9 million, or 28.6% to €111.3 million adjusted. Revenue dipped 0.2% to €8.56 billion but grew 1.3% to €8.69 billion adjusted.
Cruise Division Disruptions
Cruise ships Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 remained docked in the Persian Gulf for March due to Iran tensions, resuming voyages on April 18. The segment absorbed a €20 million Q2 hit, with adjusted EBIT falling 3.1% to €79.3 million. Without disruptions, EBIT would have risen €18 million more year-over-year.
First-half cruise adjusted EBIT surged 24.3% to €161.5 million, driven by strong UK and German demand.
Hotels and Resorts
Hotels and Resorts first-half adjusted EBIT declined 9.8% to €228.1 million, hit by Hurricane Helene losses and softer Mexico demand.
Markets and Airlines
Markets and Airlines first-half adjusted EBIT loss improved 7.9% to €451.2 million despite €20 million from Q2 Iran issues and €6 million from Q1 hurricane effects. Circulating fleet grew overall.
First-half net debt stayed flat at €3.01 billion, while customer numbers rose 2% to 5.6 million.
Outlook and Investments
TUI AG anticipates a slight year-over-year decline in Hotels and Resorts annual performance, shifting from prior mild growth views. Markets and Airlines adjusted EBIT now faces a projected drop instead of strong gains.
FY2026 net cash investment targets the lower end of €860 million to €900 million range.
