US average gasoline prices climbed above $3.59 per gallon on December 12, marking the highest level since May 2024 and signaling heightened consumer concerns amid escalating Middle East tensions.
Oil Disruptions Drive Fuel Cost Surge
Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, reportedly backed by Iran, have pushed national oil benchmarks higher by approximately $100 per barrel in recent weeks. Brent crude for May delivery on the ICE futures exchange surged 9.2% to $100.46 per barrel, the first time surpassing $100 since August 2022.
This marks roughly three years and seven months since oil last crossed that threshold, reflecting the severity of disruptions to global energy supplies.
Gasoline Prices Hit Multi-Month Peak
The national average gasoline price reached $3.59 per gallon (roughly 1,414 Korean won), up sharply from earlier levels. Following the start of joint US-Israeli operations against Iran on January 28, average prices have risen by about 60 cents.
Non-oil factors contributed around 20% to the increase on December 11, mirroring patterns seen during Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Historical Precedents Signal Political Pressure
Analysts note that gasoline prices exceeding $3.50 per gallon often correlate with significant impacts on presidential approval ratings. Surpassing $4 per gallon typically triggers direct political fallout for the administration in power.
Recent weekly averages have increased by up to 35 cents, with the overall gauge jumping from below $2.94 a month ago to $3.60 now. Market observers anticipate further gains if oil prices climb another $100–$200 per barrel.
Pressure Mounts on Trump Administration
Experts predict this trend poses a major burden for the Trump administration and Republican leadership ahead of midterm elections. Past episodes underscore the risks: the 2008 financial crisis saw prices near $4, sparking market unrest and presidential pressure; the 2011 debt ceiling crisis returned prices to $4 levels; and Russia’s 2022 Ukraine incursion pushed them above $5, nearly derailing the president’s term.
Current momentum suggests gasoline could soon test the $4 threshold, amplifying economic concerns nationwide.
