North Korea deepens ties with China, Russia as dialogue with Trump stays distant

Cha Se-hyeon


The creator is an editorial author on the JoongAng Ilbo.
 
 
Typically it isn’t phrases however actions and numbers that reveal a nation’s true intentions.
 
North Korean chief Kim Jong-un declined U.S. President Donald Trump’s request for a gathering throughout Trump’s go to to South Korea. As an alternative of making ready for a attainable encounter, Kim made symbolic strikes that pointed in one other course.
 

A wreath was laid on the Friendship Tower in Pyongyang on Oct. 25 to mark the seventy fifth anniversary of China’s entry into the Korean Struggle, based on Korean Central Tv on Oct. 26. The wreaths had been despatched within the title of the Central Committee of the Employees’ Occasion of Korea and the Central Committee of the Communist Occasion of China. Kim Tune-nam, director of the occasion’s Worldwide Division, and Chinese language Ambassador to North Korea Wang Yajun attended the ceremony. [KOREAN CENTRAL TELEVISION]

 
On Oct. 25, to mark the seventy fifth anniversary of China’s entry into the Korean Struggle, Kim visited the cemetery of the Chinese language Individuals’s Volunteers in North Korea. He laid flowers on the grave of Mao Anying, the eldest son of former Chinese language chief Mao Zedong, who died in the course of the conflict. A yr earlier, for the 74th anniversary, Kim despatched solely a wreath to the Sino-Korean Friendship Tower in Pyongyang, a landmark visited by nearly each Chinese language delegation.
 
On Saturday, whereas South Korean President Lee Jae Myung hosted a Seoul-Beijing summit in Gyeongju, Kim visited North Korea’s eleventh Corps, an elite particular operations unit often known as the Storm Corps. The unit consists of personnel despatched to Russia’s Kursk area. State media launched pictures of a smiling Kim surrounded by troopers after an inspection. North Korea’s state media, the Korean Central Information Company, mentioned he praised their readiness to defend nationwide sovereignty in opposition to what it known as “probably the most despicable and vile enemies on earth.”
 

Kim Jong-un, chairman of the State Affairs Fee of North Korea, visited the headquarters of the Korean Individuals’s Military eleventh Corps on Nov. 1, the Korean Central Tv reported on Nov. 2. The eleventh Corps, often known as the “Storm Corps,” is an elite particular operations unit underneath the particular forces deployed to Russia. The picture reveals Kim observing coaching by particular forces troopers and posing for a commemorative photograph with troops throughout his go to. [KOREAN CENTRAL TELEVISION]

 
Pyongyang’s Overseas Minister Choe Son-hui has additionally been lively. Between September and October, she visited China, Russia and Belarus, signaling a full resumption of North Korea’s diplomatic outreach to its two largest backers.
 
Then there are the numbers. In line with China’s Common Administration of Customs, Chinese language exports to North Korea in September totaled $228.1 million, a surge of 54.5 p.c from August and 30.8 p.c from a yr earlier. The principle exports included soybean oil, hair for wigs, asphalt and sugar. The rise got here shortly after Kim attended China’s Victory Day ceremony in Beijing, the place he met Chinese language President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many analysts anticipate October’s figures to point out even greater development.
 
Chinese language Ambassador to Pyongyang Wang Yajun has maintained a extremely seen schedule since September. He attended Pyongyang’s worldwide commerce honest and expressed sturdy curiosity in North Korea’s “20×10 coverage,” Kim’s plan to construct fashionable factories in 20 cities and counties annually for the following decade. Wang mentioned China would assist match North Korean regional initiatives with Chinese language companies.
 
 
These actions and numbers all level in a single course: a tightening of North Korea’s strategic alignment with China and Russia. In Pyongyang, some now confer with this rising posture as “safety from Russia, economic system from China.”
 
In opposition to this backdrop, Trump’s try and rekindle private diplomacy with Kim appeared mistimed. In 2019, Kim eagerly accepted Trump’s shock invitation for a quick assembly in the course of the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan. This time, the response was the alternative. On the day earlier than Trump arrived in South Korea, North Korea launched a brand new strategic cruise missile with a reported vary of two,000 kilometers (1,242 miles), able to carrying a nuclear warhead. The launch coincided with Trump’s go to to the U.S. plane provider USS George Washington in Yokosuka with Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
 
But Trump brushed apart the rejection. On his return flight, he mentioned, “We didn’t have an opportunity to speak as a result of I used to be very busy. I’ll be again.”
 
Some officers and analysts imagine there should be a gap within the spring. Trump has introduced plans to go to China in April. South Korean intelligence officers say the interval after the South Korea-U.S. joint army drills in March might mark a turning level on the peninsula. They word that Kim, in the course of the Supreme Individuals’s Meeting in September, instructed conditional talks with the US and has since toned down references to nuclear weapons.
 

Kim Jong-un, chief of North Korea, left, walks with U.S. President Donald Trump, heart and President Moon Jae-in towards the army demarcation line after their assembly on the Freedom Home on the South Korean facet of Panmunjom on June 30, 2019. [YONHAP]

 
Nonetheless, observers warning that intentions ought to be judged not by phrases, however by actions and commerce volumes. Solely when Kim’s visits to China and Russia lower and North Korea-China commerce begins to gradual may the so-called Trump-Kim diplomacy be revived.
 
Historical past suggests it isn’t not possible. Pyongyang has skilled battle and pressure with each Beijing and Moscow previously. Ought to tensions reappear, a renewed opening to Washington can’t be dominated out.
 
If that day comes, Trump might once more ship a letter just like the one he wrote to Kim after their assembly within the demilitarized zone, proclaiming confidence that the US has the flexibility to guide North Korea to large prosperity with a deal that might encourage future generations.