Ahead of November midterms, the Republican primary in Texas’ special congressional election on March 3 shakes Washington political circles. In a district Democrats have not won since 1988, a MAGA-aligned candidate backed by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton surges ahead, despite Paxton’s ongoing allegations of extramarital affairs and corruption.
Unexpected Poll Momentum
The Paxton-endorsed contender leads despite low primary turnout risks. Election analysts note that sparse voter participation could lead to self-sabotage for Republicans. The primary winner fills the seat until late 2026. Both parties hold primaries on the same day; absent a majority, a runoff occurs on May 26, with the general election on November 3 determining the final victor.
Low Democratic crossover voting means Republicans effectively decide the outcome. Washington GOP leaders express unease over young voters potentially swayed by extreme positions. A district GOP executive highlights frustration with voter turnout as a key factor.
NRSC Internal Poll Reveals Shifts
The National Republican Senatorial Committee shared an internal poll with candidates on February 1-2. It shows the Paxton-backed candidate ahead of the establishment rival by 3 percentage points and leading Democratic contender Jasmine Crockett by 7 points.
On the flip side, Paxton supporters gain 3 points against establishment figures, while Crockett trails by 1 point overall. GOP insiders admit, “Our ideology risks alienating voters by veering too far right.”
Historical Stronghold Faces Pressure
This marks the first consecutive Republican primary win post-1988 in the district. A January 31 special election elsewhere saw Republicans prevail 57% to 43%, but analysts caution against overconfidence. The area saw Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential race by 17 points.
Texas AG Paxton, a 2015 appointee, embodies cultural flashpoints. His 2023 impeachment trial over bribery and abuse claims ended in acquittal, amid state losses and leadership challenges. Trump allies pressured county officials in 2020 amid election disputes.
Party Leadership Weighs Risks
Republican executives voice concerns: “Polls strengthen us, but general election worries linger for Paxton backers.” Another insider reflects, “Blind partisanship scares off voters we cannot afford to lose.”
Texas congressional delegation grips the reins amid Washington scrutiny. Trump leadership refrains from explicit endorsements, monitoring Paxton’s appeal. Current district polls favor Republicans at 53 seats to 47 combined for Democrats and independents, though margins remain narrow.
Safe victories could propel momentum to other races like Noskarella, Joji, and Misigan. Absent high independent turnout on March 3, May 26 runoffs loom. GOP members emphasize growth potential while tempering midterm hopes.
