South Korea’s exports are anticipated to surpass $700 billion for the primary time in historical past this yr. Subsequent yr, pushed by the expansion of the worldwide synthetic intelligence (AI) business, IT merchandise akin to semiconductors and solid-state drives (SSDs) are anticipated to steer exports and break this yr’s report as soon as once more. Nonetheless, conventional key industries akin to vehicles and petrochemicals are anticipated to wrestle on account of adjustments within the world commerce surroundings and falling oil costs.
In line with the 2025 Export-Import Analysis and 2026 Outlook report launched on Dec. 5 by the Worldwide Commerce & Enterprise Institute affiliated with the Korea Worldwide Commerce Affiliation (KITA), this yr’s exports are estimated to report $704 billion, a 3.0% improve from the earlier yr. That is the biggest efficiency in Korea’s commerce historical past, with the commerce surplus additionally anticipated to report $74 billion.
The driving drive behind this yr’s historic first breakthrough of $700 billion was semiconductors and ships. Specifically, semiconductors are anticipated to report the biggest efficiency in historical past this yr because the surge in demand for next-generation AI semiconductors akin to excessive bandwidth reminiscence (HBM) mixed with sharp will increase in semiconductor costs on account of restricted manufacturing strains. For ships, high-priced vessels (akin to LNG carriers) that have been intensively ordered in 2022-2023 are being delivered in sequence, with exports anticipated to extend by greater than 22% this yr.
The report additionally seen subsequent yr’s export surroundings positively. Subsequent yr’s exports are projected to achieve $711 billion, a 1.0% improve from this yr, whereas imports are anticipated to extend 0.5% to $633 billion. The commerce surplus is anticipated to develop to $78 billion, bigger than this yr.
Subsequent yr, semiconductor exports are anticipated to extend 5.9% and lead total export progress. The evaluation signifies that worth will increase on account of increasing AI inference demand and provide constraints will proceed. Specifically, as AI infrastructure funding expands, demand for large-capacity enterprise SSDs is anticipated to blow up, with pc (together with SSD) exports predicted to surge 7.8%. Wi-fi communication gadgets (5.4%) and shows (2.9%) are additionally anticipated to point out sturdy efficiency on account of foldable telephone progress and expanded OLED utility in IT gadgets.
Alternatively, vehicles and petroleum/metal industries, which have been export champions, are anticipated to wrestle on account of exterior dangers. Car exports are projected to lower barely by 1.0% subsequent yr on account of base results from this yr’s report efficiency and elevated native manufacturing by Hyundai Motor and Kia in the US. Nonetheless, the affiliation assessed that the latest Korea-U.S. settlement has partially resolved tariff dangers, avoiding a pointy contraction.
Higher considerations lie within the supplies and vitality sectors. As worldwide oil costs are predicted to fall to the mid-$50s per barrel (Brent crude foundation), petroleum product exports are anticipated to say no by 13.3% on account of sharp worth drops. Petrochemicals (-6.1%) are additionally anticipated to face the double burden of oversupply on account of China’s large-scale new capability additions and falling oil costs. Metal (-2.0%) can be anticipated to wrestle on account of stagnant world demand and protectionist commerce limitations in varied international locations.
Jang Sang-sik, director of the Worldwide Commerce & Enterprise Institute, stated, “Subsequent yr, IT merchandise together with semiconductors will drive our export progress based mostly on strong AI demand,” whereas advising, “Given the continued uncertainty within the commerce surroundings, such because the launch of the brand new U.S. administration and the potential of USMCA revisions, methods are wanted to diversify export markets to the Center East and ASEAN and develop the bottom of shopper items exports.”
