The worldwide smartphone market is anticipated to expertise destructive progress subsequent yr amid hovering reminiscence semiconductor costs. Whereas Chinese language producers are anticipated to take a direct hit from rising part prices, Samsung Electronics is projected to solidify its market dominance by leveraging vertical integration of core elements.
In line with market analysis agency Counterpoint Analysis on Dec. 17, international smartphone shipments in 2026 are anticipated to lower by 2.1% year-on-year. This represents a downward revision of two.6 share factors from the forecast introduced in September (0.5% progress). The report recognized the surge in invoice of supplies (BoM) prices because of reminiscence semiconductor provide shortages as the important thing issue behind the cargo decline.
Regardless of general market contraction, Samsung Electronics is anticipated to ship stable efficiency in comparison with rivals. In line with the info, Samsung’s smartphone market share in 2026 is projected to achieve 19%, tying with Apple for the worldwide high place. The report forecasted Samsung’s cargo progress charge at -2.1%, sustaining market common ranges. This represents a greater determine than the decline charges of Chinese language rivals equivalent to Honor (-3.4%).
The influence of rising prices is anticipated to focus on Chinese language producers with excessive proportions of price range merchandise. Materials prices for smartphones below $200 have surged 20-30% in comparison with early this yr. The report analyzed that “forecasts for main Chinese language authentic tools producer (OEM) firms together with Honor, Oppo, and Vivo have been revised down by the most important margins,” including that “phenomena of decreasing price range mannequin manufacturing because of incapability to beat price burdens are additionally rising.”
Samsung Electronics possesses the highly effective weapon of vertical integration. Analysts recommend that having in-house manufacturing capabilities from semiconductors to completed merchandise positions the corporate rather more favorably than Chinese language firms by way of part provide and price protection. Its portfolio with a excessive proportion of premium lineups additionally serves as a constructive issue for profitability protection.
Analysts count on reminiscence value will increase to proceed till the second quarter of 2026. With prospects of reminiscence costs rising a further 40%, smartphone manufacturing prices are estimated to extend 8-15% greater than present ranges. Producers are resorting to determined measures equivalent to passing prices to customers or downgrading specs of elements like cameras. The forecast for subsequent yr’s smartphone wholesale common promoting value (ASP) progress charge has been revised upward from 3.9% to six.9%.
Yang Wang, senior analyst at Counterpoint Analysis, acknowledged, “Samsung and Apple, with economies of scale and broad portfolios, are finest positioned to climate the following few quarters,” including, “Conversely, it is going to be a harsh interval for Chinese language firms that should stroll a tightrope between market share and revenue margins.”
