The partitions of the primary constructing of Seonghwa College are stained and uncared for, on this July 2024 file photograph. The varsity was closed in 2012. Korea Instances photograph by Kim Jin-young
As Korea’s annual variety of first graders is projected to fall under 300,000 for the primary time this yr, consultants warn that higher-education establishments throughout the nation are headed for a brutal shakeout, with many unlikely to outlive the approaching decade.
Specialists say the steep decline in births seen for the reason that 2000s is now transferring into the college system, with the variety of youngsters getting into elementary college set to lower even quicker between now and 2030 than it did from 2020 to 2025. This implies the present disaster is “solely the start” of a a lot deeper contraction within the pupil inhabitants ― and its affect will shake the upper schooling system profoundly, they added.
Their warning on Wednesday comes a day after a report by the Ministry of Training, which projected that elementary colleges nationwide are anticipated to enroll 298,178 new college students this March. This determine is way wanting the 450,000 to 500,000 new college students that universities and two-year schools are constructed to enroll annually, with many already struggling to fill their quotas. In response to authorities information, there are 331 universities and schools in whole as of 2025. Since 2000, 22 colleges have been closed.
Demographic consultants warn that the affect might be uneven and will deepen regional inequality.
“Universities and schools within the better capital space alone have an consumption capability of about 180,000 college students, whereas roughly 250,000 youngsters are being born at present. If 70 % of them go to school and so they all flock to the capital area, that’s it ― regional universities will merely vanish,” Lee Sang-lim, a demography professional on the Inhabitants Coverage Analysis Heart at Seoul Nationwide College, instructed The Korea Instances.
Lee predicts that in some provinces “solely about 5, and even simply three universities will have the ability to survive,” making early intervention important. Slightly than letting establishments collapse one after the other by way of brutal market competitors, he insisted, the federal government ought to “transfer shortly to regulate earlier than they collapse,” to be able to decrease the social and regional injury from the approaching contraction.
“What we’re seeing now’s solely the beginning,” stated Yi In-sill, president of the Korean Peninsula Inhabitants Institute for Future. “Restructuring measures can act like painkillers to reduce the signs, however the ache itself is unavoidable.”
Citing a current survey of 116 presidents of universities on the Korean Council for College Training’s common meeting, she identified that greater than 60 % of them count on over 30 four-year establishments to shut inside the subsequent 10 years.
A pupil stands earlier than the primary constructing of an elementary college in Wonju, Gangwon Province, on this February 2023 file photograph. Korea Instances photograph by Choi Joo-yeon
Specialists say probably the most pressing process can be adjusting enrollment quotas. However this has proved to be difficult. College staff protest restructuring as a result of closing departments or campuses and reducing college instantly threaten their jobs and careers. For college students, it raises considerations concerning the worth of their levels and their future alternatives.
One other hurdle is the authorized and monetary framework surrounding personal universities, which makes significant restructuring extraordinarily tough. Yi notes that the present personal college legislation was designed a long time in the past to cease homeowners from siphoning off funds, however in apply, it has “successfully shut off” the choice for personal universities to voluntarily shut, even when their numbers not add up. She argues that tuition rules also needs to be loosened so colleges can increase charges the place obligatory, whereas growing focused scholarships for low-income college students as an alternative of holding down tuition for everybody.
A associated debate facilities on the rising reliance on overseas college students, the place the 2 consultants place completely different emphasis. Yi views the current surge in worldwide enrollment, boosted by the worldwide reputation of Korean tradition and the federal government’s “glocal college” agenda, as a significant alternative, whereas nonetheless arguing that weaker establishments ought to be allowed to shut and stronger ones to develop quite than all counting on the identical tactic to outlive. Lee is extra guarded, saying that growing overseas pupil numbers is just not a long-term resolution, characterizing such insurance policies as momentary measures that maintain struggling universities afloat with out addressing their underlying issues.
