[Column] If Trump meets Kim Jong-un in April, will South Korea have a spot on the desk?

By Kim Yeon-chul, former minister of unification and present professor at Inje College 

The much-anticipated assembly between US President Donald Trump and North Korean chief Kim Jong-un by no means occurred. Though Trump tried to win Kim’s affections by recognizing North Korea as a nuclear energy and even hinting at easing sanctions, Kim left him on learn. Even when the assembly didn’t result in negotiations, Kim would have benefited from merely convening with the US president. So why didn’t he? The reply, after all, is China.
 
North Korea couldn’t ignore China. Contemplating how China was making ready to face the US head-on, North Korea determined that it could be prudent to maintain its distance from the US. Trump is scheduled to go to Beijing subsequent April, which means that US-China and China-North Korea dynamics could heighten the probability of US-North Korea dialogue. How ought to South Korea put together?
 
A notable change within the worldwide order surrounding the Korean Peninsula is in North Korea-China relations. The primary North Korea-China summit in six years was held this previous September, on the event of the anniversary of China’s victory over Japan in WWII. Bilateral relations have since shifted, one instance being that China now not mentions denuclearization. 

Financial cooperation between the 2 nations has additionally modified. North Korea-China commerce quantity has recovered to pre-pandemic ranges, and border commerce has turn into extra energetic. After North Korean International Minister Choe Son-hui and Chinese language International Minister Wang Yi met in Beijing in late September, North Korea’s state-run Rodong Sinmun reported that the 2 events had determined to “deepen sensible cooperation.”
 
The time period “sensible cooperation” requires our full consideration. Earlier than September, North Korea sought financial cooperation with China, however China insisted on upholding worldwide norms — particularly, UN sanctions. That led to a hard-to-overcome rift in relations. Regardless of how profitable North Korea’s financial cooperation with Russia grew to become, it was and is inconceivable for Pyongyang to search out an alternative to its financial relationship with China.
 
China has lengthy accounted for an awesome share of North Korea’s commerce as a consequence of geographical proximity, and North Korea’s dependency on its neighbor with regards to commerce and industrial linkages dominated by Chinese language equipment and tools. After September, China started to train flexibility whereas sustaining the pretense of adherence to worldwide norms.
 
As soon as the Chinese language central authorities decides on a route, the regional governments then turn into chargeable for implementing sensible cooperation. The Sino-Korean border has an extended historical past of mutual dependence and, as such, has functioned for a protracted interval as a single financial zone.
 
As North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia led to a money influx, North Korea gained import capacities. An abundance of used inner combustion engine automobiles, which sit idle as a consequence of China’s electrical automobile growth, is flowing into North Korea. The distinctive nature of the border means that there’s ample potential for unofficial commerce, which is not going to be captured by statistics, to spike. 

There may be additionally an space the place substantive cooperation between the 2 nations is feasible, even whereas China adheres to UN sanctions: tourism. North Korea wants crowds of vacationers to fill the large, newly constructed Wonsan-Kalma resort.
 
Throughout its second spherical of talks with Trump, China will make sure to shrewdly use the leverage it has by North Korea. Previously, progress in North Korea-US relations occurred when South Korea made the primary transfer to influence North Korea, then moved on to placate the US, however now, the scenario has modified. China will now take the position of mediator, which used to belong to South Korea. Beijing will try and fill the void created by the Trump administration’s most crucial weak spot: the shortage of communication between Trump and working-level departments.
 
In an period marked by strategic competitors between the US and China, which has its ups and downs, the North Korea subject can be utilized to tempo the competitors. Whereas it could be a aid if the US and China cooperated to resolve the North Korea subject, we must always not overlook that that is additionally a activity for South Korean diplomacy.
 
What is going to we do when diplomatic talks happen in Beijing subsequent April? Attributable to how the 2 Koreas are virtually estranged from each other, South Korea has been pushed out and compelled to look at from the sidelines. Sadly, the prospect of resuming inter-Korean relations at any level within the foreseeable future appears far-fetched. Within the twin construction of inter-Korean relations, which sees intervals of confrontation and cooperation intersect, adversities that sink under the floor throughout extra favorable instances of dialogue inevitably resurface throughout stalemates. We have now such a great distance forward of us, however the obstacles we must face solely multiply.
 
Now’s the time for South Korea to focus its diplomatic efforts on China. We should strengthen strategic communication between Seoul and Beijing earlier than it’s too late, as we have to be sure that the North Korea-US summit will get off heading in the right direction and results in sustainable, fruitful negotiations.
 
South Korea and China share frequent pursuits. China’s twin suspension proposal — that South Korea and the US ought to halt all joint army workout routines whereas North Korea ought to discontinue its nuclear and missile actions — intersects with the Lee Jae Myung administration’s recognition that guaranteeing that North Korea freezes its manufacturing of nuclear weapons is the highest precedence in its phased method to resolving the North Korea nuclear subject. This plan additionally aligns with China’s dual-track method, which advocates for concurrently resolving the North Korea nuclear subject and establishing a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
 
It’s time for us to provoke simultaneous or sequential four-party talks between South Korea, North Korea, the US and China by guaranteeing that, following South Korea-China strategic communication, China persuades North Korea whereas South Korea persuades the US.
 
The Lee administration is pouring its very soul into deftly navigating the difficulties posed by tariffs and commerce. That being stated, its diplomatic technique stays murky. In an period the place geopolitics has made a comeback, most middle-ground nations are considering survival methods. Nowadays, we are able to now not depend on conventional alliances to outlive. To navigate this complicated disaster, we have to steadiness diplomacy, nationwide protection and inter-Korean relations. It’s time to assessment the methods, personnel and techniques required for pragmatic diplomacy. No competitors might be received if one merely depends on techniques and not using a technique, and a pragmatism missing a aim will simply lose its sense of route.

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