A person in Holon, Israel, lights a cigarette with fireplace from a burning image of Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Israelis rally in assist of the nationwide protests taking place in Iran, Jan. 14. Reuters-Yonhap
The seize of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the lethal nationwide protests in Iran are separate occasions unfolding on completely different continents. Nonetheless, political unrest concurrently battering the 2 oil-rich nations might converge to grow to be a defining second with far-reaching penalties for international geopolitics and commerce.
Following Maduro’s extradition to New York to face felony prices, together with narco-terrorism, U.S. President Donald Trump made clear that Washington intends to take management of Venezuela’s oil business. On Friday, he stated the US would make investments at the very least $100 billion to rebuild the nation’s battered vitality sector.
“The U.S. stated narco-terrorism was the first cause behind its operation to arrest Maduro. However it’s honest to say that the true motive stems from Washington’s plan to manage Venezuela’s oil business,” stated Choo Jae-woo, a professor at Kyung Hee College.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest confirmed oil reserves, estimated at 303 billion barrels, adopted by Saudi Arabia with 267 billion and Iran with 209 billion. Within the wake of the U.S. operation to seize Maduro, the query of who will management Venezuela’s oil business has emerged as a key challenge, with the potential to rattle not solely the geopolitical panorama but in addition international commerce.
Whether or not the US will pursue comparable navy motion in opposition to Iran, one other oil-rich nation, stays unsure.
Iran’s bloody crackdown on protests has led to a hovering dying toll. Regardless of widespread bloodshed and a communications blackout imposed by the federal government, the Iranian public continues to withstand the regime. Time will inform whether or not the authorities or the protesters — who initially took to the streets over financial grievances — will achieve the higher hand.
Choo stated the chance of U.S. intervention in Iran seems slim, citing Washington’s previous responses to comparable uprisings elsewhere.
“The U.S. has not intervened in uprisings pushed by financial grievances aimed toward overthrowing incumbent regimes,” he stated. “There have been anti-government protests in international locations throughout Africa and the Center East, but the U.S. has shunned intervening. We must see how Washington reacts to Iran this time.”
Citing an unnamed supply, Trump stated he had obtained info indicating that Iran had halted the killing of protesters and suspended deliberate executions. His remarks had been interpreted as a sign that the U.S. was backing away from navy motion in opposition to Iran.
A number of Center Japanese international locations have reportedly urged Trump to not launch a navy strike on Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested him to postpone any assault, days after Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Egypt conveyed comparable requests, warning of the chance of a wider regional battle.
Shin Jae-hyun, an Iran knowledgeable who served as particular envoy for pure sources through the conservative Lee Myung-bak administration (2008–2013), stated Iran can be higher off if the present rebellion results in regime change.
“A regime change is inevitable,” he stated, stressing that key authorities officers and people who ordered safety forces to fireplace on protesters needs to be held accountable.
In response to Shin, essentially the most practical and favorable situation would contain Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and different senior officers stepping down, permitting President Masoud Pezeshkian to type a transitional interim authorities with the objective of building a democratic system inside a yr or so. He added that the U.S. and different Western nations ought to assist Iran’s efforts to rebuild the nation.
A banner on the entrance finish of a bus options photos of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and China’s Xi Jinping with a message that interprets to, “An instance for the world,” throughout a government-organized rally opposing U.S. intervention, in Caracas, Venezuela, Dec. 13, 2025. AP-Yonhap
Political instability in Iran and Venezuela is poised to deal a blow to China, each politically and economically. The 2 international locations have been amongst Beijing’s closest companions, and their simultaneous upheavals — albeit pushed by completely different causes — underscore China’s restricted capability to affect occasions even amongst pleasant regimes. This impotence dangers undermining China’s picture as a rising international chief.
Past the political setback, China additionally stands to undergo vital financial losses.
Ought to Iran substitute its Islamic theocracy with a democratic authorities, as protesters are demanding, China would face severe repercussions, largely due to its long-standing apply of buying “sanctioned oil.”
China is the world’s largest oil importer, and its economic system relies upon closely on international vitality provides. In 2024, China imported a median of 11.1 million barrels per day of crude oil. Its prime 5 suppliers had been Russia (20 %), Saudi Arabia (14 %), Malaysia (13 %), Iraq (11 %) and Oman (7 %). Collectively, these international locations accounted for roughly two-thirds of China’s complete crude imports.
Nonetheless, this provider checklist comprises a notable anomaly. Malaysia emerged as China’s third-largest oil provider in 2024, offering an formally reported 1.4 million barrels per day — far exceeding the Southeast Asian nation’s precise manufacturing capability of about 565,000 barrels per day.
In response to Erica Downs, a senior researcher on the Middle on International Power Coverage at Columbia College’s Faculty of Worldwide and Public Affairs, a lot of the oil labeled as Malaysian is in actual fact imported from Iran and Venezuela.
“The emergence of Malaysia as China’s third-largest oil provider final yr virtually actually displays oil imports from Iran and Venezuela which can be rebranded as Malaysian to evade U.S. sanctions,” Downs stated at a U.S.-China Financial and Safety Overview Fee listening to on April 30 final yr.
She defined that crude from Iran and Venezuela is relabeled by ship-to-ship transfers in waters off Malaysia, permitting it to enter China. Such sanctioned oil is often bought beneath market costs at a reduction of $5 to $10 per barrel.
As political unrest in Iran and Venezuela deepens and its aftermath unfolds, China could also be pressured to restructure its oil import portfolio. If Beijing can not depend on discounted crude oil from the 2 international locations, it’ll face heightened dangers to its vitality safety.
