[Guest essay] After summits, it’s time for South Korea to make daring strikes

By Lee Hee-ok, director emeritus of the Sungkyun Institute of China Research at Sungkyunkwan College

Korean President Lee Jae Myung has resumed shuttle diplomacy with visits first to China after which to Japan, echoing his assertion that Korea-Japan relations are simply as essential as Korea-China relations.

Notably, Lee finessed his go to to China firstly of the yr to keep away from any provocations that might complicate his summit with the Japanese chief. For instance, he expressed sympathy with China’s enchantment for a mixed entrance on excellent historic disputes with Japan with out pledging substantial motion. 

Whereas China has reacted angrily to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s controversial remarks about potential navy intervention in a Taiwan contingency by limiting exports of dual-use objects to Japan and calling on Korea to “stand firmly on the precise facet of historical past,” Lee nimbly prevented the chance of entanglement by downplaying China’s enchantment as a “Confucian platitude.”

Regardless of Takaichi’s want for her summit with Lee to entangle Korea within the China-Japan standoff as a method of drumming up home political assist, Lee harassed the necessity for trilateral cooperation and provide chains with China as a method of concluding the summit with out incident.

Holding back-to-back summits with the Chinese language and Japanese leaders firstly of the yr displays a long-term plan of constructing belief with each nations to organize for the substantial change which may be introduced by US President Donald Trump’s summit with China in April.

Since a constructive position by China is important for reaching a breakthrough in inter-Korean relations, Lee put appreciable effort into his summit with China and despatched skillfully ready diplomatic messages.

As an illustration, Lee preemptively declared Korea’s respect for the “one-China” precept and didn’t deliver up the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, a difficulty that China has been intentionally refraining from mentioning.

Against this, Lee frolicked explaining to Chinese language President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang his dedication to peaceable coexistence with North Korea and his plan for reaching that.

Considerably, his remarks about “artistic measures,” “the codification of peace” and “practicable alternate options” appear to suggest formally ending the state of warfare on the Korean Peninsula and consult with concrete concepts about cooperation in tourism, railroads and public well being, all areas that aren’t lined by UN Safety Council sanctions on North Korea.

The Chinese language president gave Lee’s proposals a considerate reception and voiced assist for China taking part in a constructive position, mentioning the necessity to dedicate “extra constructive vitality to regional improvement.”

However whereas Xi sympathized with the necessity to enhance inter-Korean relations, he additionally endorsed persistence with an idiomatic expression: “Three toes of ice gained’t soften abruptly.”

In line with Xi, it is going to take time for belief to be constructed and for situations to ripen due to varied sensible issues. For one factor, North Korea has outlined South Korea as a “hostile state” and refuses to have interaction in dialogue till the US drops futile hopes about denuclearization. For one more, China is pressured to uphold the UN Safety Council’s sanctions to keep away from giving an edge to the US within the two powers’ ongoing jostling for place. 

However when Takaichi harassed “North Korea’s full denuclearization” and joint motion with South Korea and Japan to realize that, Lee spoke of the necessity for the “full denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” and the institution of everlasting peace.

To make certain, Lee wasn’t calling on North Korea’s preemptive denuclearization, nor was he making an informal comment. Language about North Korea’s full denuclearization had beforehand appeared within the Seoul-Washington joint truth sheet about Lee’s summit with Trump final fall.

The catch is that a number of points have to be tackled earlier than Korea can attain a breakthrough in inter-Korean relations and persuade China to play a extra proactive position.

Chief amongst these is the position of the US. Virtually talking, each North Korea and China need to know whether or not Korea could make its case to Trump, who wishes to be the prime mover behind an answer on the Korean Peninsula. Till such a time because the US makes a transfer, neither North Korea nor China have a lot purpose to make the primary transfer.

Second, somewhat than the “dialogue first and negotiations later” mannequin — with the presumption that so long as North Korea involves the desk, every part is up for dialogue — South Korea must suggest cooperation packages to the North whereas concurrently looking for out new methods to deliver it to the desk with China’s assist. 

The third problem is to fine-tune our message for North Korea. We have to handle the perplexing incontrovertible fact that the extra we name for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the extra distant the prospect of inter-Korean dialogue turns into.

We additionally want a message that may thread the needle between the argument that ROK-US navy workout routines are crucial if Korea is to regain wartime operational management (OPCON) of its navy and the argument that pausing these workout routines could be step one towards rebuilding navy confidence within the seventh yr since all inter-Korean communication was severed.

As a driver, following the automobile in entrance of you could be protected, however the draw back is you don’t see various routes. Generally, you need to change lanes.

Quite than ready for the sport to alter, we have to shake up the foundations in a method that can appear like an excellent alternative to North Korea.

Please direct questions or feedback to [english@hani.co.kr]