Lee to hunt Beijing’s assist on N. Korea, financial cooperation throughout January journey

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is anticipated to hunt widespread floor with Beijing on points similar to North Korea’s nuclear program and sanctions throughout his January journey, whereas additionally working to regular bilateral ties in hopes of making a extra predictable exterior surroundings for the nation’s economic system and companies, in accordance with consultants.

Lee is about to go to China in early January, marking his first journey to the nation since taking workplace in June. It’s the first go to to China by a sitting South Korean president since Moon Jae-in attended the Korea-Japan-China summit in 2019.

The upcoming go to follows Chinese language President Xi Jinping’s journey to South Korea in late October for the Asia-Pacific Financial Cooperation (APEC) Financial Leaders’ Assembly — Xi’s first go to to Korea since 2014. Though particulars have but to be introduced by both facet, a South Korean official mentioned earlier that the 2 nations had been in talks and extra data could be made public shortly.

Elevating additional anticipation for Lee’s go to, South Korea’s First Vice Overseas Minister Park Yoon-joo held a strategic vice-ministerial dialogue with Chinese language Vice Overseas Minister Ma Zhaoxu in Beijing final week.

The 2 officers mentioned “mutual problems with curiosity, together with the West Sea situation,” in addition to “regional and worldwide conditions, together with the Korean Peninsula,” in accordance with the South Korean overseas ministry. Notably, this was the primary such session since their final assembly in July of final yr.

Consultants mentioned that through the upcoming journey, the Lee administration is more likely to search Beijing’s assist in bringing Pyongyang again to the negotiating desk, as communication between the 2 Koreas stays at a standstill.

Niu Xiaoping, a Korean Peninsula specialist on the Shanghai Institutes for Worldwide Research, mentioned that the alternate of visits by the 2 nations’ leaders inside simply three months underscores their dedication to deepening ties.

Prospects are additionally rising for a summit between North Korean chief Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump — who final met in 2019 — on the event of Trump’s deliberate April go to to China for talks with Xi. Trump could search to reengage with North Korea to safe a diplomatic victory forward of the November midterm congressional elections.

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with North Korean chief Kim Jong-un on the demilitarized zone separating the 2 Koreas in Panmunjom, South Korea, June 30, 2019. Yonhap-Reuters.

In keeping with Niu, Seoul views Trump’s April go to as a vital second that might form the longer term trajectory of the Korean peninsula.

“Seoul is keen to succeed in a consensus with Beijing on key points such because the North Korean nuclear program and sanctions, whereas additionally looking for China’s assist and cooperation in facilitating U.S.-North Korea dialogue and inter-Korean talks,” she added.

Kang Jun-young, a professor of Chinese language research at Hankuk College of Overseas Research, famous that Lee could use his journey to press China to take motion on North Korea’s nuclear program, noting that the problem was absent from Beijing’s newest coverage white paper and from Washington’s most up-to-date Nationwide Safety Technique.

“President Lee could ship a message to China, urging it to position larger deal with the problem of denuclearization,” he mentioned. “Nonetheless, Beijing is in a fragile place now. Pyongyang has declared itself a nuclear weapons state. Any push from China for denuclearization is more likely to fall on deaf ears in Pyongyang. Even when China had been to exert stress, it could possible show ineffective.”

In the meantime, South Korea’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs and Ministry of Unification are at odds over their strategy to North Korea. The Ministry of Unification advocates for a North Korea-focused, inter-Korean bilateral technique, whereas the Ministry of Overseas Affairs prioritizes a global coordination framework led by the US.

The unification ministry shouldn’t be collaborating within the consultative talks between Seoul and Washington that commenced final week.

“Clarifying the precedence of coverage objectives towards North Korea is a urgent situation [South] Korea wants to handle, which might additionally allow higher cooperation with China,” Niu mentioned.

She added that visiting China earlier than his confirmed Japan journey in mid-January demonstrated Lee’s balanced strategy and averted the notion of favoring Japan.

“It’s potential that Lee hopes to behave as a ‘mediator’ or ‘messenger,’ looking for a possible breakthrough for future trilateral cooperation,” she mentioned.

Including to the anticipation, main South Korean conglomerate leaders are anticipated to accompany Lee on his go to, with a enterprise delegation of round 200 executives set to journey to Beijing. This marks the primary South Korean enterprise delegation to go to China since December 2019.

Liu Ziyang, a professor of world enterprise at Kyonggi College, mentioned that Lee’s subsequent go to to China might assist solidify and institutionalize the political consensus achieved on the earlier assembly.

“One in all Lee’s core aims for the China journey is to stabilize expectations in bilateral relations, in order to create a extra predictable exterior surroundings for South Korea’s economic system and companies,” he added.

Within the final assembly, Xi known as for bilateral cooperation in rising fields similar to synthetic intelligence, biopharmaceuticals, inexperienced industries and the silver economic system.

A tv display screen at a practice station in Seoul exhibits a information broadcast of South Korean President Lee Jae Myung with Chinese language President Xi Jinping in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, Nov. 1. Yonhap-AFP.

Liu famous that cooperation in high-tech industries might grow to be one of the vital sensible breakthroughs for China and South Korea, with each nations more likely to pursue “selective cooperation below restricted competitors.”

“South Korea and China face each competitors and powerful complementarities in sectors similar to semiconductors, new supplies, synthetic intelligence and life sciences. Their industrial provide chains have been deeply intertwined for years, making an entire ‘decoupling’ economically and technologically unrealistic,” he mentioned.

He added that this kind of high-tech collaboration is pushed by industrial effectivity, technological development and market demand, making it a pure space for mutual cooperation that depends much less on exterior situations.

“Total, this go to ought to be understood as a realistic, danger management-oriented initiative, serving to to supply a extra steady and predictable framework for South Korea-China ties,” Liu mentioned.

Regardless of renewed diplomatic momentum, thorny points stay, together with Seoul’s U.S.-backed plan to construct nuclear-powered submarines and Beijing’s increasing presence within the West Sea.

Progress is being made on the nuclear-powered submarine deal, as Seoul plans to equip its submarines with reactors utilizing low-enriched gas at ranges of 20 p.c or much less. Korea and the U.S. have agreed to pursue a separate settlement to formalize the method, with working-level discussions scheduled for early subsequent yr.

Within the North, Kim Jong-un lately made an on-site inspection of an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine, which is presently below building. In keeping with the North’s state-run Korean Central Information Company on Thursday, Kim known as Seoul’s submarine plan an offensive act and a risk to North Korea, whereas vowing to strengthen its personal nuclear submarine capabilities.

North Korean chief Kim Jong-un conducts an on-site inspection of the nation’s submarine below building, on this picture launched by Pyongyang’s state-run Korean Central Information Company, Thursday. Yonhap

Kang famous that South Korea is a member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and is below strict oversight from worldwide monitoring businesses, not like some others.

“If Beijing takes a lenient or noncritical strategy towards North Korea (on its nuclear-powered submarine) whereas directing criticism at South Korea, it could be unacceptable for Seoul,” he added.

Niu famous that if the nuclear-powered submarine situation and West Sea disputes will not be successfully communicated and managed upfront, they might grow to be triggers for tensions in China-South Korea relations.

Alyssa Chen is a reporter with the South China Morning Put up. She is presently primarily based in Seoul, writing for each The Korea Occasions and the South China Morning Put up below an alternate program.