Macquarie, a worldwide funding financial institution, projected that the KOSPI will method the 6,000 mark subsequent 12 months. The projection is predicated on expectations {that a} highly effective reminiscence supercycle and the federal government’s shareholder-friendly coverage drive will lead an extra rally within the home inventory market.
In a not too long ago printed report, Macquarie said, “A 48 % progress in 2026 earnings per share (EPS), led by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, will push the KOSPI index to the 6,000 degree,” including, “Regardless of the robust rally this 12 months, the Korean inventory market stays undervalued relative to actual earnings.” The report notably emphasised that “this 12 months’s market rally has been pushed extra by basic earnings progress relatively than a valuation re-rating, and the forecast worth earnings ratio (PER) of 9.4 instances for subsequent 12 months strongly means that the market stays undervalued.”
Macquarie pointed to “a scarcity of semiconductor provide” because the core driver of subsequent 12 months’s market progress. The report stated, “The present provide scarcity within the reminiscence semiconductor market is the worst in historical past,” noting that “demand for high-bandwidth reminiscence (HBM) and DRAM has surged explosively because of the growth of synthetic intelligence (AI) inference, however the transition to 10-nanometer-class DRAM has restricted impression on rising precise output.” It additionally cited the current steep rise in reminiscence costs, which has not but been mirrored in earnings forecasts, as one other issue rising the upside potential for the index. The report projected that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will account for 52 % of all internet earnings subsequent 12 months and that the 2 firms can be accountable for greater than 70 % of the full revenue improve.
The federal government’s inventory market help insurance policies have been additionally cited as an element including to upward momentum for the index. The Lee Jae-myung administration is accelerating shareholder return insurance policies centered on the Company Worth-Up Program, together with obligatory cancellation of treasury shares, modifications to the mixed 3 % rule for appointing audit committee members, reinstatement of the obligatory tender supply system, and a 30 % discount within the high marginal tax fee for separate taxation of dividend revenue.
Macquarie introduced most well-liked sectors together with reminiscence semiconductors, protection, energy gear, shipbuilding, bio and healthcare, and Ok-beauty. Particularly, it forecast that regardless of the sharp positive factors already recorded in protection, shipbuilding, and energy gear, the upward momentum will proceed attributable to three structural drivers: lengthy business cycles, lack of abroad opponents, and geopolitical decoupling from China.
